Extraterrestial life

[Atlas2112]

Been reading alot of Sci-fi lately so I've been thinking about this.

I don't believe in any of that Roswell stuff or anything of the sort, but considering how large the our solar system is, let alone the galaxy, universe, or anything else that might supercede that, I figure there has to be something out there. i doubt we have or ever will meet anything, be they sentient or not.

hell, i think we'd be pretty lucky to even find a fungus.

so, what are your thoughts

[Whalestoe]

Dude, haven't you seen E.T.?

[moviesceleton]

I think there possibly is life on other planets, but no way we're ever gonna meet an E.T. Maybe some bacteria or viruses...

[dave jenkins]

The likelihood of extraterrestrial life is not good (read Stanislaw Lem on this). This assessment could change suddenly, however, the moment we get the one thing now missing: evidence.

[dave jenkins]

Given the size of the universe and millions of planets, it would seem illogical that we are the only intelligent life.

Thus are fallacies born. The question is not one of numbers, but of events unfolding in time, a continuous trial of nearly infinite length where a series of conditions must be met without fail. Imagine a cosmic slolam (to use Lem's image) where if even a single "gate" is missed, the trial comes to nothing. The question then has to be raised: what are the pre-conditions necessary for the creation of life? How many gates have to successfully negotiated to complete the run? Without an answer to that question, it is impossible to calculate the probability for life occurring multiple times or even once. But this is exactly the question science is unable to answer. The variables are virtually infinite! It is not enough, apparently, that a planet be exactly like ours, orbiting a sun exactly like ours, at the precise distance from the sun that ours enjoys, with a moon exactly like ours, in a solar system exactly like ours. It is also necessary that a solar system occupy a similar place in the Milky Way that ours does and that it exist in our galaxy, or a galaxy with exactly the cosmic history as ours. Galaxies move through space and perform their own slolam: if they arrive too early or too late at certain gates they will either not acquire the necessary conditions that ultimately favor life, or, when such conditions already exist, destroy those conditions forever (the way radiation works is key in these cases). Even if we were able to construct a flow chart that took into account every possible variable, and were able to assign a probability to the successful negotiation of each gate, and by multiplying those probabilities arrive at a truly fantastic number, we would still not know whether we had beaten the odds or performed as expected. There is no way to repeat the trial. Furthermore, we could only speak of the creation of life as we know it: for other forms we cannot imagine (or the history required to create them) we would have to remain silent. Again, all would be rendered moot if we had the one thing so far denied us: undeniable proof that extraterrestrial life exists. In the absence of that, calculating incomplete probabilities is an empty game.

[sargatanas]

@ one time. not now

[Tuco the ugly]

They've found frozen bacterias on some planet, didn't they? That's ET life.

There must be other intelligent organisms out there in the universe.

[Groggy]

There's no real evidence, and the plethora of UFO sightings and abductions are mostly disprovable.  As Joe Nickell of CSICOP says, Unidentified does NOT mean unidentifiable. There are too many questions required for belief.

The fact raised by my astronomy teacher in a lecture on UFOs last semester makes the most sense: it's about 4 light years from Earth to the nearest star (Alpha Centauri). The universe is just so frigging huge, that it would take an amazing, completely incredible type of technology to travel thousands of light years to Earth and presumably back. And for that matter, why would they come to Earth?

For that matter...

If aliens had such advanced technology, why in the hell would they travel this far just to make crop circles and allow themselves to be seen by rednecks? It just doesn't make sense. If they had plans of invasion, why would they make themselves observable to human beings? Just for kicks? The thrill of being caught?

The only defense is that alien life-forms might have completely different psychology than humans, but that's not much of a defense since it's not provable until we come up with an alien specimen.

I agree with Jenkins' points, I'm just not quite as articulate in expressing them. I belive there is life, perhaps even intelligent life, somewhere int he universe, but the idea that they'd be able to reach Earth, let alone come to Earth en masse and bug the hell out of us for over sixty years or more, is ridiculous.

[Tuco the ugly]

Someone has been reading U.S. Army's prospects quite regularly I see.

[Groggy]

Someone has been reading U.S. Army's prospects quite regularly I see.

It's quite convenient for conspiracy kooks when you can accuse everyone who disagrees with you of being a government agent. I learned that on the JFK Board on IMDB.

[Tuco the ugly]

Nah, I'm restrained about that matter, but what's important is that I try to get the answers leaning on my own logic. That's the whole point. Repeating what someone else said doesn't have much discussion value IMHO. Whether he's agent of the government or a self proclaimed prophet-visionary.

[dave jenkins]

The fact raised by my astronomy teacher in a lecture on UFOs last semester makes the most sense: it's about 4 light years from Earth to the nearest star (Alpha Centauri). The universe is just so frigging huge, that it would take an amazing, completely incredible type of technology to travel thousands of light years to Earth and presumably back. And for that matter, why would they come to Earth?

No reason whatsoever. The vast distances of space mean that the time and expense it takes to cross those distances can never be compensated for. There are not enough raw materials and/or slave labor on Earth to make a raiding party pay off, and even the most altruistic of civilizations would never pay the costs required just to come for a friendly visit. The best they could do is wave. And I'm talking neutrinos. Once more I direct you to the work of Stanislaw Lem: in his novel His Master's Voice, he posits a message from space of alien origin that arrives on Earth in the form of neutrinos. It is the only way to practically cross the galactic distances. The idea that creatures in space ships can make inter-galactic excursions is nothing more than a childish fantasy. The best we could hope for is a process of communication (interestingly, Lem is even skeptical about the ability of non-anthropoids and anthropoids communicating; in HMV the scientists know they've received a message, but have no way of determining its meaning; lots of tests are run, theories advanced, but it all comes to naught. An alien culture would be so thoroughly "other," he feels, that there would be no common foundation upon which understanding could be built).

[Tuco the ugly]

But Dave, if someone told you when you were a kid (somewhere around the Russo-Japanese War, right?) that you'll be one day sitting in front of a box that displays pictures, and that you'll be speaking with a person from the other side of the world in real time, you'd probably depict him as loco. And look at you now.

[Groggy]

I'd say that were a fair point Tuco, except there's absolutely no way to prove or disprove it. It's a nonsequitir.

[dave jenkins]

But Dave, if someone told you when you were a kid (somewhere around the Russo-Japanese War, right?) that you'll be one day sitting in front of a box that displays pictures, and that you'll be speaking with a person from the other side of the world in real time, you'd probably depict him as loco.

Possibly, but the technology of today is consistent with the Newtonian scientific model we've had since, well, Newton. Nothing that computers or telephone lines do violates what was implicitly or overtly possible under that paradigm. But sci-fi fans and fellow travelers now routinely expect the Einsteinian universe to obligingly allow the laws of physics to suspend themselves when inconvenient, and in particular, the speed of light. Faster-than-light travel is de rigeur in speculative fiction, because without it there is no way to cross the great voids of space. But what if such travel is impossible? It's not true that everything becomes possible with time or innovation: Will medical science someday find a cure for death? Will travel back in time ever be possible? Can an authentic perpetual motion machine be devised? The answer to all these questions is an unqualified NO. An ordered universe means that some possibilities are excluded. Some things are impossible, now and forever, and wishing they were otherwise is a vain exercise. The universe is not shrinking (in fact it's expanding), the distances remain and lengthen, technology can do nothing in the face of the cosmic speed limit. Kid yourself if you want to, but intergalactic travel has not, and will not happen.